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OFAI-TR-2000-02 ( 60kB g-zipped PostScript file,  74kB PDF file)

Searching for Patterns in Political Event Sequences: Experiments with the KEDS Database

Klaus Kovar, Johannes Fürnkranz, Johann Petrak, Bernhard Pfahringer, Robert Trappl, Gerhard Widmer

The paper presents an empirical study on the possibility of discovering interesting event sequences and sequential rules in a large database of international political events. We have implemented and extended a data mining algorithm, first presented by Mannila and Toivonen (1996), which is able to search for generalized episodes in such event databases. Experiments conducted with this algorithm on the KEDS database, an event data set covering interactions between countries in the Persian Gulf region, are described. We report some qualitative and quantitative results and also discuss our experiences with strategies for reducing the problem complexity and focussing the search on interesting subsets of events.

Citation: Kovar, K., Fürnkranz, J., Petrak, J., Pfahringer, B., Trappl, R., and Widmer, G. (2000). Searching for Patterns in Political Event Sequences. Cybernetics and Systems 31(6).